Из 2004 г.

новая дискуссия Дискуссия  118

Так как я таки не понимаю динамику распростанения вируса (да, модель Навигатора работает, но почему она работает мы мне кажется не поняли), посмотрел  на  SARS 

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2004.1490?fbclid=IwAR15vHml5FzJ_StRlqD59IN45VcRTEi7N5_1uKvXL-ud8e4gFxCq0-h5n9Y&

Цитата"...the typical pattern of epidemic growth was an initial period of
stuttering chains of transmission, interspersed with one or
two major SSEs. This was followed by a period of
exponential growth slowing to reach a peak and then a
period of steady decline with perhaps one or more SSEs
leading to temporary resurgence, before the epidemic
decayed with a cessation in chains of transmission (figure
10). The decay phases were of varying durations,
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B (2004)
depending on the efficacy of the interventions introduced
in the different regions. "

Как-то очень похоже....

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