Цитата: Кengel_Neh от 14.03.2009 16:34:37
В этой ветке выкладываем переводы Авантюриста.
Особенно хотелось бы ценна была бы помощь тех, кто проживает в лагере врага и свободно общается на аглицком наречии (Хроноскопист и другие).
Просьба не флудить и выкладывать именно переводы.
Обсуждение переводов (выявление ошибок, неточностей и т.д.) допускается, но будет со временем удаляться.
спасибо! вот прилагаю мой скромный вклад:"Геббен зи битте етт вас копеек" или The dollars future prospects.
In accordance with my previously shown model I was expecting the dollar to devalue in the first speculative phase of the crisis with a strengthening of the dollar in the second phase of the American economic downturn. This should have begun in January of 2008 but instead began three months earlier. For this to be true, the Federal reserve should have shown its Spartan stoicism and cut rates by a symbolic 0.25 to 0.5%. Subsequently, inflation should slow down and the corrections in the commodities markets should trigger the strengthening of the dollar. This in turn should halt the flight of capital out of risky investments and redirect the capital into dollar based bonds and securities. The only effect would be the slight increase of uncertainty on the global markets and the ever so slight acceleration of the crisis. In this manner the value of the dollar should have stabilized as the influx of capital, seeking a safe harbour form the general chaos of the worlds markets and assorted geopolitical instable spots, would have attracted more capital. This is what formed the intermediate (1.5 to 2.5 year long) stabilization and revaluation of the dollar.
Taken the above, the federal Reserve did something to disgust even hardened financial raiders when it decided to keep cutting interest rates in a conscious effort to bring about further devaluation of the dollar even in the second phase of the crisis. None the less, the revaluation of the dollar is an absolute necessity for the United States and I am almost certain that the revaluation we saw early last year was the beginning of the revaluation phase.
To begin with, I would like to point out that historically speaking, the dollar is not going through anything it has not yet before experienced before. The index value of the dollar has only slipped to the 1992/95 level. In ‘92 the pond to dollar exchange rate stood at $2.0 and in the ‘80’s the exchange rate was $2.4 and ten years before that, it stood at $2.6. Compared to these numbers the peak exchange rate of 1.0 to $2.11 almost appears conservative. Also in the ‘70’s C$1 would buy 95 and in the ‘80’s A$1 would buy $1.10 meanwhile today the A$1 will not even manage to buy you the 95. In 1995 the German Mark cost 75 which meant $1.45 to €1 at the times exchange rate so today’s level of $1.56 to €1 is not great feat. Also in 1995, $1 would buy you ¥85 whilst today’s dollar will buy you ¥99. Looking at the price of commodities and including inflation we see that the historical/potential highs of the dollars have not yet been reached, whilst the historic gold highs are as readily accessible as the Moon is on foot. Other indicative goods are in the same situation. The current “final collapse” of the dollar is nothing more than a clever optical illusion.
The last six months have been the time where all around the world analysts have been bemoaning the Federal Reserves actions akin to dousing a fire with petrol and hopping it will go out. Similarly throwing good credit after bad mortgages and other acts of assorted derivatives trash. Were we to take the whining of the liberal financial media literally, we should believe that the Federal Reserve has infused the US economy with no less than a TRILLION dollars. All funded by direct debt in the form of T-bill which no sane investor or creditor will ever buy. The more capricious of analysts believe that through these actions the Federal Reserve has decided to write of the debts of American banks by buying out their bad loans and debts with freshly printed dollars which means that the hyperinflation apocalypse will shortly be upon us when the Federal Reserve decides to turn on the printing presses in earnest. Honestly, I am in no mood to explain this again but I shall.
Analysing the available information it is obvious to see that the Federal Reserve has not poured a trillion or even hundreds of billions into the American banking sector. The maximum level of daily liquidity attained was $81.5 billion versus the peak levels of $51.8 billion in April of 2007 when there was not even the slightest hint of crisis anywhere. The mean level of temporarily added liquidity in March of 2008 was $63.1 billion versus $33.6 billion in March of 2007. I cannot stress this enough but the Federal Reserve only added $29.5 billion to March of 2008 in comparison to the calmer times of March 2007. To further underscore the petty size of this sum, the total passive holdings of the American banking sector, attracted by said sector in the second half of 2007 amounted to $910 billion which grew to $15750 billion. If the trend will continue the baking sector will hold passive assets of over $16 trillion. In simple terms, the Federal Reserve added a mere 0.18% to the balance sheets of America banks. This 1/5% of inflow is not even in the region of near enough to trigger the American hyperinflation.
If there are those still out there who believe that the $29.5 billion are enough to break the back of the dollar, I have another item of news, much more popular with the analysts, for you. Apart from the addition of temporary liquidity to the markets the Federal Reserve also operates on the System Open Market Account, where it controls the amount of physical money available on the market. In all practicality, the system works like this; the US government sells its obligations to the Federal Reserve that repays the state with freshly printed notes and coins to facilitate the private turnaround of the money mass. So it comes to pass that the American Government has reduced its obligations to the Federal Reserve by almost 12% from $800 to $699 billion by repaying or buying back obligations from the Federal Reserve. The government managed this sleight of hand by withdrawing $100 billion from the market. If we begin looking at the actions of the Federal Reserve and the Government as one we begin to see that the Federal Reserve is actively striving to reduce the money supply, rather than increasing it.