РВСН и прочие СЯС, а также ТЯО
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BlackShark ( Эксперт ) |
| 20 мар 2018 20:10:14 |
Любопытный документ
новая дискуссия Дискуссия 189
Что произойдет с американскими базами в Азии в случае конфликта с Китаем. Уверен, что в случае завязки конфликта с нами будет то же самое. Переводите сами, правда.
While the number of ballistic missiles leaking through defenses varied somewhat between our two models (see Figures 13 and 14), in both cases enough ballistic missiles seemed likely to leak through to cause highly significant damage to U.S. bases and forces in the region. In the case of our CMANO simulations, which modeled damage to specific facilities and platforms, we saw the following results:
- almost every major fixed headquarters and logistical facility struck, with key headquarters struck within the first few minutes of the conflict
- almost every U.S. ship in port in Japan struck pierside by ballistic missiles
- in most cases, cratering by ballistic missiles of every runway and runway-length taxiway at all major U.S. air bases in Japan
- as a result of runway cratering, headquarters destruction, and air defense degradation, more than 200 trapped U.S. aircraft destroyed on the ground in the first hours of the conflict.
Observing the simulations of the notional missile strike provided what seem to be some key takeaways. First, while open-source analysis shows several Patriot batteries on Okinawa in position to defend facilities such as Kadena Air Base, they could easily be overwhelmed by the sheer number of SRBMs available in China’s inventory. We also noted that the simulated flight time of ballistic missiles to bases in Japan – on the order of six to nine minutes – is shorter than we supposed it would be. To try to validate whether these modeled flight times might be accurate, we simulated a previously publicly announced U.S. Minuteman III ICBM test flight, from Vandenburg Air Force Base to a target facility on Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean. This test flight, reported as having taken 27 minutes in the real world, took about 25 and a half minutes in our simulation, a difference of less than 10 percent.
Собсна файл
https://s3.amazonaws…-Final.pdf
While the number of ballistic missiles leaking through defenses varied somewhat between our two models (see Figures 13 and 14), in both cases enough ballistic missiles seemed likely to leak through to cause highly significant damage to U.S. bases and forces in the region. In the case of our CMANO simulations, which modeled damage to specific facilities and platforms, we saw the following results:
- almost every major fixed headquarters and logistical facility struck, with key headquarters struck within the first few minutes of the conflict
- almost every U.S. ship in port in Japan struck pierside by ballistic missiles
- in most cases, cratering by ballistic missiles of every runway and runway-length taxiway at all major U.S. air bases in Japan
- as a result of runway cratering, headquarters destruction, and air defense degradation, more than 200 trapped U.S. aircraft destroyed on the ground in the first hours of the conflict.
Observing the simulations of the notional missile strike provided what seem to be some key takeaways. First, while open-source analysis shows several Patriot batteries on Okinawa in position to defend facilities such as Kadena Air Base, they could easily be overwhelmed by the sheer number of SRBMs available in China’s inventory. We also noted that the simulated flight time of ballistic missiles to bases in Japan – on the order of six to nine minutes – is shorter than we supposed it would be. To try to validate whether these modeled flight times might be accurate, we simulated a previously publicly announced U.S. Minuteman III ICBM test flight, from Vandenburg Air Force Base to a target facility on Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean. This test flight, reported as having taken 27 minutes in the real world, took about 25 and a half minutes in our simulation, a difference of less than 10 percent.
Собсна файл
https://s3.amazonaws…-Final.pdf
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