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The end of the economic super cycle.

Let us start from the beginning. There are many varied theories that argue and prove that the worlds and national economies develop in great cycles varying in length from 35 to 45 years. These different theories explain the cyclical nature with reference to their “periods”, the internal workings of the cycles and so forth, but all of them revolve around one central theme.

The nature of long cycles.

The world economy constantly moves towards ever increasing level of efficiency given the restraining framework placed on it at the current time. Then at any time a new economical doctrine emerges which improves on the previous model. The key characteristic of the new model is its set of basically new economical “tools” ( quicker, more efficient, more rational). From the very first moment of these new “tools” entering into common practice, they begin to force the old practices out of the marketplace in accordance with the Darwinian law of “survival of the fittest”. If the model and its “tools” prove to be locally successful, the model will expand beyond its direct geographical confines into new markets.

Unfortunately, there comes a point where the success of the “new” model reaches a point where the model may no longer expand and as such becomes the “old”. Despite the stagnation of the model, the tools still continue to produce economic product (general, not only the manufactured goods) at a more efficient rate. This leads to the build-up of unused product and potential within the system. This build-up is what causes the systemic crisis, where the situation reaches a point where the existing tools become insufficient to deal with the “overpressure” that they have created. During the crisis the totality of the aggregate product is destroyed together with those same tools that created it. After the crisis comes the depression which is caused by a lowered level of consumption and production, brought by the artificial limits which are enforced by the crisis itself. The crisis and the following depression force the economic “subjects” to create new “tools” which will allow the “subjects” to resolve the situation. Usually these new “tools” will be diametrically opposed to the old ones which caused the crisis. The faster these new “tools” are found and the more effective they prove to be, the quicker will the depression be dispelled. Upon the resolution of the crisis and the depression a new cycle of economic growth will begin.

Previous cycles.

The first era of globalization (not the worlds first economic cycle) of 1846/51 to 1893/96  ( I am speaking mostly about he USA) was characterised by the modernization of agriculture, significant mechanization of manufacturing (mostly within the textile sector) and the mass dissemination of goods due to the advent of steam powered transport. The American Civil War was a direct result of a industrialization coming into conflict with the old model of slavery and small scale production. The industrializing North had to fight a war with the South which insisted on clinging to the more traditional methods of production an labour. The North began large scale production of agricultural products and on a smaller scale a production of manufactured goods which all needed to be sold on a market. This primary market was the South. The Latin American continent was also a potential market but it was either unstable or a puppet buyer. Therefore the protectionist tendencies of the South had to be overcome so as to have a stable market close to the centres of production. Clearly, the cavalry was called for. The effect of the conquest of Latin American markets and the South was an agricultural crisis which impoverished millions of Americans and millions more Latin peons who were all reliant on the sector.

The following cycle of 1896 to 1929/32 which solved the crisis of the “agrarian-steamer” epoch. The crisis was ended by the redistribution of labour within the agricultural business and by the advent of the era of mass production. The era of mass production was characterised by the assembly line, the growth of industrial opportunities, the mechanization of the agricultural sector, the aggressive saturation of markets with goods, the development of international trade and the mass transformation of rural populations into the urban proletariat. As such the First World War can be seen as a war over markets among the colonial powers and those countries looking to move into those markets. It is further understandable that when the US markets became oversaturated with goods from domestic and foreign producers and when foreign markets could no longer absorb the surpluses, the world hit the overproduction economic crisis of 1929/32. This crisis led to the Great Depression in the USA as well as the rest of the world which in turn led to the rise of nationalistic and fascist governments across the world. This change in governments led to the beginning of the Second World War.

The last completed cycle of  1932/33 to 1967/74 solved the problem by developing the consumer market and as such can be called the period of mass consumption. This period is characterised by the autoimmunization of production, aggressive competition, the rise and development of marketing and the booming development of the services market. The 1932/74 cycle hit its absolute peak in 1965 after which we saw crises come and go with increasing severity. The United stets and Europe tried fighting these crises with varied measures and at one point the battle seemed to be won as the economic situation was looking up. The final blow came in 1974 with the oil crisis which forced the worlds economy to drop like a lead balloon, almost 9 years after the beginning of the crisis period.