Переводы Авантюриста

Цитата: Woodpecker от 25.03.2009 13:25:57
2 Поляков
Я по поводу вариантов перевода "колониального налога".
Вообще-то правильнее было бы назвать это барщиной, но ближайший аналог из европейского феодализма - "сеньораж" - не подходит. А существует ли достаточно идиоматичное выражение для обозначения поборов рекета?
Ну, или это "откаты" в особо крупных размерах.

сложность состоит в том, что тест группа указала на то что " колониальный" налог в их понимании таковым не является, так как платится добровольно. В этом и сложность.
Если мы говорим о том, что США обирают весь остальной мир, то нужно четко раскрыть механизмы: с цифрами и ссылками. Поскольку полная теория с цифрами и ссылкам будет являтся доказательством величайшего преступления против человечества, то доказать это нелегко объективно и с " кроссовочными" примерами тут никого не убедишь.

На мой взгляд в доказательстве нужно использовать следующее:

1) сокращение объема мировых денег - стоимость товаров, ресурсов, фикс. активов и проч. -> влияние на экономику США на входе;
2) увеличение объема мировых денег - стоимость товаров, ресурсов, фикс. активов и проч. -> влияние на экономику США на входе;
3) потоки доходов на материальные активы; потоки доходов на нематериальные активы;  
4) активность транснациональных корпораций и политика ФЕД;

 
Для примера, возможные цепочки: ФЭД привлекает внешнее финансирование --> ФРС снижает учетную ставку---> выкупает собственные обязательства на внутреннем рынке ---> ТНК скупают подешевевшие активы на внешних рынка;

ФЭД повышает ставку --> привлекает финансирование на внутреннем рынке --> выкупает обязательства на внешнем рынке--> излишки капитала с внешних рынков поступают в виде инвестиций в США;


Это первая группа аргументов.

Вторая группа аргументов состоит в том, что всем прочим странам с активными платежными балансами необходимо аккумулировать долларовые резервы, для того чтобы гарантировать их стоимость. Тут тоже достаточно сложный механизм. И США имеют преимущества. В то время как у обычной страны существует два способа управления стоимостью своей валюты, у США этих рычагов я насчитал 5. Возможно их даже больше.

Author: Adventurist

U.S. Imperial Model

Well, well, dear Americans… So, trouble is looming ahead, and you are concerned about your economic future, aren’t you? OK, let’s take a fresh look at this country in its global context so that we’d better understand what is going on here and how we can fight back. Our approach may seem a bit unusual, though we strongly believe that it is better to break a few old-fashioned stereotypes rather than to keep wandering in the dark. Here we are considering the true contributing sources of American wealth, and provide food for thought about how to preserve them.

Introduction.

Generally speaking, the United States as an entity has two sources of income, internal and external. Internal income is a result of the creation of physical and mental products inside the country. External income is the wealth created outside the country and brought in the USA. Internal income used to be the core of American wealth creation. Not any more. So, what is the primary source of American wealth today?

Some people refer to the USA as 'an empire'. Are they right? In some obvious respects they are, for the USA possesses absolute military and ideological hegemony on the globe. But the term 'empire' implies something different. Military power and ideological domination are simply tools employed by an empire to achieve its imperial goal, though by no means could those be considered the true imperial goal. The true goal pursued by any empire regardless of its geographical location or the epoch of its existence is always one and only – to impose tax on other countries and peoples. We are talking here about the requirement to pay a percentage of a subjugated country's income and a host of numerous tributes and levies, fixed or variable, to the empire. First, let's review various models of colonial taxation that existed in the past to better understand America's role in all that, and why the future may be different from the present. The past often helps better understand a possible future.

1. Ancient empires: Military Conquest – Plundering, Triubute, and Slave Trade.

Since ancient times empires used military conquest as the easiest way to impose tax on other countries. Every military victory was immediately followed by pillage in which the conqueror appropriated a significant portion of the treasure previously accumulated by the conquered nation. Simply put, the conquered country was robbed of everything valuable. Then, a direct triubute was placed on the subjugated people. At the same time, a portion of the population was turned into slaves. Later, these slaves were used by the conqueror as free labor, or sold as commodity. All the empires of the past adhered to this simple pattern including the following well-known examples: Sumerian, Babylonian, Syrian, Egyptian, Persian, Macedonian, Roman, several Chinese empires, Manchurian, Hun, Mongolian, Maya, Karl the Great's and others. Some empires ended up by assimilating the conquered nations, some others – by exterminating the conquered nations. Some tried to civilize 'the barbarians', others established an administrative system in their 'new provinces', the remainder stayed away from the internal affairs of their possessions to just receive tribute – they did not even bother to keep permanent garrisons there. The major point remaind the same in all cases though: the loser paid for everything, even for the keep of the conqueror's occupying forces. The method of military conquest was universally accepted by the empires as long as agriculture remained the staple of world's economy and the productivity of labor was low and more or less the same all over the world.

2. Empires of the Enlightenment: Colonial Taxation.

The end of the Middle Ages brought forth many changes in Europe. Factories manufactured various goods, shipyards built vessels for mercantile fleets and powerful navies, large trading companies established business relationships with faraway lands. This all allowed to replace the model of risky and costly military conquest with less conflictive and more profitable colonial taxation. The essence of colonial taxation is the free exchange of inexpensive mass-manufactured 'products of civilazation' for much more valuable natural products. This way trinkets (such as glass beads and mirrors) were exchanged for gold, precious spices, rare furs, etc, at an incredible profit for European merchants. In North America, India or Africa a steel knife worth 10 pence could buy an armful of fur worth 10 guineas. A brilliant scheme!

Aboriginal population quickly realized the humanitarian benefits of colonial taxation over military conquest. First, aborigines were not killed too often by Europeans any more, and second, now they were even given something valuable in exchenge for their traditional goods. Those were wonderful glittery little things of 'equal value'. As a result, the population of the previously conquered countries began fighting for their 'freedom' to join the new trade-based empires. Within practically a few decades the old conquest-based empires of Spain and Portugal were squeezed out of their many possessions, and more 'progressive' and 'humane' empires were established, among those were Britain, France, Holland, and Russia.

However, the number of those wishing to acquire new colonies far surpassed the number of colonies available. The lust of the existing empires for expansion was continuously growing, but the number of the colonies in the world remained the same. Moreover, some colonies began claiming independence – and they could substantiate their claim with adequate military might. Some of the former colonies even claimed imperial status for themselves, the USA being a prime example. Along with the status, the USA claimed a colonial realm of their own. Thus the USA first appeared in the global empire league in the 19th century by successfully taking over the former Spanish and Portugues colonies in Latin America and South Pacific. Naturally, at that time the USA followed the most popular imperial model of the day – colonial taxation.

The lack of taxable colonial territories in the world caused continuous tensions between the empires. In the beginning of the 20th century, these tensions culminated in WWI. The war reduced the intensity of the problem for some while because the winners (Britain, France, USA) split the colonies of the losers (Germany, Austo-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Russia) among themselves. However, this could not resolve the problem completely. Moreoved, due to the high rate of industrial production and development, shortly after WWI the world experienced a devastating crisis of overproduction known as the Great Depression of 1929-1940. As soon as in the end of 1930s, the countries that had lost in WWI (Germany, Japan, Italy, Russia) recovered from their defeat and made a new claim for the previously lost status and colonies. A new clash among the old, new, and revived colonial powers led to WWII.

3. American Empire: Financial Taxation.

The end of the WWII created a unique situation in the world. All the countries including the former empires were now under control or at least domination of the only two superpowers, USA and USSR. Furthermore, since the beginning of the WWII industrial production in the USA was growing exponentially. The European technologies and professionals received by the USA after WWII fueled American growth even further. The USA possessed unsurpassed capabilities to manufacture both commodities and means of their transportation (such as boats, airplanes, trucks and railroad equipment). The U.S. global market comprised more than half of the world. This outstanding combination of American manufacturing and distribution capabilities coupled with America's overwhelming political control ensured the collection of unprecedented colonial taxes by the USA for several decades.

At that moment, shrewd Americans made an important intellectual breakthrough. (Americans used to be smart, didn't they?) In its efficiency the American economic discovery far exceeds all the methods previously used by the British colonialists, Dutch merchants, and Jewish bankers. The Americans asked themselves a simple question: Why do we need to compete for colonial taxes with our newly acquired dominions (Britain, Germany, Japan, etc) when we can impose taxation on the entire global trade? The entire trade! It was an ingenious idea. So, soon after WWII colonial taxation in the world was replaced by financial taxation.

Originally, the essence of financial taxation was in the use of the U.S. dollar as a legal tender in the trade between the USA and all other countries, as well as among other countries. Therefore, all U.S. colonies and dominions were supposed to have a reserve of dollars sufficient to cover their trade needs. As more and more countries got into dollar-based trade, the USA emitted a necessary amount of dollars to match new demands. Similarly, the higher the volume of trade was getting, the more dollars the USA was printing. The dollars issued for this trade comprised financial tax collected by the USA. (Sounds incredible? To make a piece of paper money on a printing press is almost free!) Understandably, in exchange for paper money the USA received physical goods (such as oil, metals, machines, etc) from abroad. In order to maintain international demand for dollars permanent, the USA skillfully manipulated its currency. The primary tool was to inflate the dollar so that previously emitted dollars would lose a part of their value in the hands of their current foreign holders.

All in all, the use of a single currency in international trade was convenient for all participants. Event the constand devaluation of the dollar due to inflation was chiefly disregarded because dollar mass was primarily in continuous circulation among merchants servicing their trading needs. Therefore losses due to dollar inflation were generally carried by foreign end-users. Well, if some foreign government did not like this system, the USA has always had a choice to replace such government with a better one… [1]

4. American Empire: Debt Taxation.

However, in 1970s the global trade capacity for the use of the dollar was exhausted even in spite of the dollar's significant devaluation. The global crises of 1970s and 1980s occurred. The USA did not cut its budgetary expenses though, nor did it reduce its internal consumption. The USA chose another path. Direct taxation in the manner of ancient empires was imposed on American colonies. Though this time the military tax was in the form of non-returnable govenrnment borrowings primarily as payment for protection against 'the Evil Empire' (USSR). [2] Most U.S. colonies agreed to pay in order to avoid even worse alternatives (such as a U.S. military intervention, or a coup d'etat, or a U.S. economic blocade). Besides, they indeed were afraid of meeting with the Russian Bear one on one. Therefore, during only 7 years between 1981 and 1988, the USA increased its national debt by 75% from $12T to $21T (even though not all of this amount belonged to foreign states or financial institutions). [3] If nothing had changed, then in the next 10 to12 years USA would have exhausted the resources of all the countries controlled by them. [4]

Fate treated the USA favorably (as it has always done before!), and spontaneous collapse of the Soviet empire began. Commencing the end of 1980s, the dollar zone received a whole bunch of new members (Eastern European countries, Latin America, Africa, China, ex-USSR, and Russia itself). For a short while the USA slowed down the program of debt taxation. (Within a 9-year period between 1988 and 1997, the USA increased its debt by 'only' 30% from $21T to $27.5T). [5] Now the USA could safely return to financial taxation. 'Auld good' financial taxation was imposed on the entire 'American Commonwealth' which now included practically all humanity. However, the capacity of the former Soviet bloc for the dollar was very limited, and the financial crisis of 1997 hit the markets.

Well, the USA got lucky once again (it used to be a lucky country, didn't it?). Almost all developing nations (including China, Russia, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, etc) got extremely troubled by the recent financial catastrophy, so they hastily began to send their money to the USA in various forms. In order to avert the risk of a new financial disaster, a good half of humanity reduced its consumption down to a bare minimum, and began to meticulously pile up U.S. bank notes and Treasury Bonds. Thanks to that, the USA escaped a risk of collapse of its global taxation system. [6] Moreover, within a 7-year period between 1998 and 2005, the USA managed to increase its debt by 55% from $27.5T to $43T. [7] It was the mechanism of American global debt taxation that did the job. Soon afterwards, a recovery of the developing economies from the ctisis of 1997 followed. The needed of international cash by the recovering nations gave a new boost to the mechanism of American global financial taxation. As a result, the USA almost doubled global dollar mass from $5T to $9.5T. [8] In the beginning of 2007, the U.S. national debt equaled $50T, while U.S. dollar mass exceeded $11T. [9] It was a success. Such a huge amount of external tax has not been collected by any other empire in history, ever.

5. American Empire: Contemporary External Taxation.

Now, let's consider the current situation.

Apart from the aforementioned financial taxation and debt taxation, the USA employs 'traditional' mechanisms of external taxation. Above all, colonial taxation is widely used. Of course, merchandise supplied by the USA to contemporary 'aborigines' is very different from glass beads. The USA specializes in selling knowledge-based products and services, high-tech, intellectual property, technologies, etc. However, here problems begin. U.S. colonial taxation is on sharp decline because numerous U.S. dominions (Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc) are quickly taking over colonial trade which used to be America's prerogative.

The next important external tax is resource tax, i.e. concessions granted by colonial governments to U.S. corporations at a symbolic price. U.S. corporations mine minerals, metals, oil, and various other resources all over the world. In the 20th century many wars were fought and coups organized by the USA in response to refusal by local governments to pay this tax. [10] And here we see another problem for the USA. The collection of this tax is gradually falling.

Military tax was very important during the Cold War era. U.S. colonies used to pay for the maintenance of U.S. military infrastructure in their territory, and sometimes they even paid for construction. [11] Besides, colonies used to purchase American surplus armaments for protection from the Soviet threat. Currently, only Taiwan, and to some extent Japan and South Korea along with the new U.S. colonies in Eastern Europe keep paying this tax. [12]

Intellectual tax is another very important tax imposed by the USA. The USA has adopted a policy of importing valuable scientists and engineers from the colonies. Also, U.S. corporations purchase and utilize innovations and technologies developed in the colonies at a reduced cost. [13] This all helps maintain and advance U.S. knowledge-based industry which is the primary source of colonial taxation. Futhermore, 'brain drain' weakens the intellectual potential of the colonies. As long as the USA remains a country attractive for living, the collection of intellectual tax is safe. There is danger of losing this important American advantage and therefore this tax.

Labor tax is of somewhat similar nature. The source of labor tax is extremly cheap labor employed in various poor countries. The actual products are manufactured in these poor countries at a very low cost, and then they are sold in the USA so that most profits are made and appropriated in the USA. Labor regulations by foreign governments (especially in China and India) may damage the collection of this tax.

Credit tax is of financial nature like debt tax. Various U.S. organizations credit colonies with dollars and earn interest. The interest collected by the USA exceeds the interest paid by the USA thus creating a positive cash flow. Some international investment schemes may be classified as this tax, too. The problem for the USA is in global financial competition and current lack of creditworthy recipients.

Conclusion.

Now we understand how America managed to make it so far. It is clear that if America wants to stay strong and wealthy, America's external sources of income should be preserved. Like in olden times, U.S. imperial system needs protection and improvement by all means possible.

References
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Цитата: Кengel_Neh от 21.03.2009 15:36:39
Уже.

Уважаемый Кенгель, отчитываюсь перед Вами, как перед Работодателем. Я ещё раз проверил предлагаемый текст на предмет английского языка, и показал его настоящим "носителям". С этой точки всё чисто. (Окончательный вариант прилагается). Замечания "носителей" по сути, пожалуйста, утрясайте с Автором. Решение в отношении "строительного мусора" на предыдущих страницах, пожалуйста, принимайте самостоятельно. Все права на текст принадлежат Вам, как Работодателю, и Автору. Спасибо.

А я вот тоже вводную про империи запощу. Только на испанском. Чавесу чтоли отослать? Ему 100% понравится  :D

    No sé qué quiero…   Las flores con la música o acuchillar a alguien

El modelo imperial de los Estados Unidos

Últimamente, con mayor frecuencia, los Estados Unidos son llamados como El Imperio. De hecho esto es correcto, pero la mayoría de la gente lo entiende primero en el concepto de hegemonía ideológica y militar. Esto no es 100% cierto. La hegemonía ideológica y militar es sólo una herramienta para realizar los objetivos imperiales, y no es su contenido. El objetivo verdadero de la existencia de cualquier imperio,  no importaba ni de qué pueblo lo ha creado, ni en qué tiempo ha existido, ni qué pública, política o ideológica base ha tenido – siempre es uno – obligar a pagar los impuestos a otros países y pueblos. De qué manera estos impuestos se distribuyen entre el aparato del gobierno, las élites y el pueblo de la metrópoli, así como la propia actitud entre estos tres sujetos del imperio, se discutirá más tarde analizando específicamente a los Estados Unidos. Ahora consideraremos los diferentes modelos de recaudación de impuestos a las colonias que existían en el pasado para ver cómo históricamente se ha transformado la recaudación de impuestos coloniales del imperio estadounidense.

1. Imperios Antiguos: el saqueo, tributos y el comercio de esclavos

Desde la antigüedad, todos los imperios han recurrido al método, lo más simple de recaudación de impuestos de otros pueblos, la conquista. La conquista de otros países estaba acompañada por la inmediata retirada de una gran parte de la riqueza que había acumulado el pueblo, es decir por el robo. El país mismo en el futuro era obligado a pagar a alguna forma el impuesto directo – un tributo, una parte de la población era secuestrada y esclavizada para ser utilizados como mano de obra o para una reventa baratísima. Esto hacían todos los imperios, incluido el sumerio, asirio, babilónico, egipcio, persa, macedonio, romano, varios chinos, manchuria, los imperios de los hunos, mongoles, incas, mayas, el imperio de Carlomagno, etc., etc. Unos imperios asimilaban los pueblos subyugados, otros los destruían, unos más les imponían su ideología en las tierras “natales” y algunos, su sistema administrativo, junto con su burocracia. Al final algunos ni siquiera se metían en los hechos interiores de sus colonias, sino que cobraban el tributo sin tener guarniciones permanentes en la tierra conquistada. Este método era bastante aceptable cuando la base de la economía mundial era agrícola y la productividad laboral en todo el mundo era prácticamente igual y muy baja.

2. Imperios ilustrados: la recaudación de impuestos de las colonias

El desarrollo de la industria artesanal en Europa y Rusia en la Edad Media, la aparición de su gran flota comercial y militar, así como la formación de grandes empresas comerciales hizo posible sustituir el modelo caro de los impuestos conquistados con un modelo menos conflicto y más rentable, el modelo de los impuestos coloniales. Su esencia era que la masiva y tecnológica (en éste momento) producción artesanal permitía el intercambio de bastante baratas, “civilizadas” mercancías – “perlas y espejos” – por mucho más valerosos – oro, especias, pieles, frutas exóticas, etc., etc. con el curso excesivo de valor. Por un cuchillo de acero, que costaba cinco peniques, a los habitantes de América del Norte, África o de India se podía cambiar una bolsa de piel o de las especias, que costaba diez guineas.
Los aborígenes sintieron rápidamente los beneficios del nuevo (colonial) impuesto sobre el antiguo (de la conquista). Primero, a ellos no los mataban tan frecuentemente, y segundo, por sus tesoros les daban algo a cambio… a primera vista, equivalente en valor. Como resultado los nuevos imperios comerciales recibieron el pleno apoyo de los habitantes de los países conquistados en la lucha contra sus antiguos “dueños”. Debido a esto, después de sólo unas pocas décadas los imperios antiguos, España y Portugal, han sido desplazados de la mayoría de los territorios conquistados y se establecieron progresivos, imperios “humanos” de nuevo tipo – Gran Bretaña, Francia, Holanda, Rusia, etc. (El modelo colonial de Rusia siempre ha sido algo distinto de la de otros imperios, pero en este artículo, no voy a discutir este tema como poco importante).
Sin embargo, de los que deseaban participar en el nuevo imperialismo colonial hubo mucho más que de las colonias mismas y los apetitos de los imperios ya formados siempre seguían creciendo. Además, algunas colonias de repente anunciaban sus propias pretensiones a la autonomía y las podían confirmar con fuerzas militares. Y los más insolentes – al estatus imperial y a la propia parte de las colonias como, por ejemplo, Estados Unidos. Por lo tanto, los Estados Unidos aparecieron por primera vez en la liga imperial en el siglo XIX, reclamando sus derechos a una gran parte a de las colonias de América Latina y del Pacífico, a las colonias, que pertenecían, principalmente, a España y Portugal. Y el primer modelo de la recaudación de impuestos externos que aplicaban Estados Unidos era el modelo clásico de los impuestos coloniales.
El resultado de la significativa escasez de los territorios indígenas gravados con impuestos fue una constante lucha entre los imperios por las colonias, que al principio del siglo XX dio lugar a la Primera Guerra Mundial. Por algún tiempo el problema se ha retirado debido a que los ganadores - especialmente los EE.UU., Gran Bretaña y Francia, compartieron entre ellos las colonias de los perdedores – de Alemania, Austria-Hungría, Imperio Otomano, Rusia y otros. Sin embargo, fundamentalmente esto no ha resuelto el problema y no podía resolverlo. Además debido al desarrollo rápido de la producción industrial, muy pronto apareció una dramática crisis mundial de sobreproducción de los años 1929-33, conocida como la Gran Depresión. Ya en el inicio de los años 30’s, Alemania, Japón, Italia, Rusia y otros países, después de haberse recuperado de la derrota en la Primera Guerra Imperialista, otra vez hicieron la pretensión a la redistribución de las colonias a su favor. El resultado de esto podía ser solo uno – la guerra total entre los antiguos, nuevos y reanimados imperios por la fiscalidad del mundo. Y esta guerra apareció; La Segunda Guerra Mundial.

3. El imperio americano: la fiscalidad monetaria

El resultado de la Segunda Guerra Mundial fue una situación sin precedentes. Todo el mundo, incluido ex-imperios, se encontraron bajo el control, o por lo menos bajo el impacto de las dos superpotencias; Estados Unidos y la URSS. Al mismo tiempo, al inicio de los 40’s del siglo pasado, la producción industrial en los Estados Unidos, impulsada por las tecnologías y los profesionales traídos de Europa, comenzó a crecer exponencialmente, y la flota comercial y aérea cada año se hacía más grande, más rápida y de mayor carga. Con esas oportunidades para la producción de productos baratos, su transportación a cualquier parte del mundo y, lo más importante, el control de un gigante mercado colonial, que incluía la mitad de la humanidad, los Estados Unidos para varias décadas se crearon gran flujo de los impuestos coloniales.
Pero luego, los estadounidenses hicieron un avance intelectual que ha superado con creces todos los métodos de estafa conocidos por los imperialistas británicos, los comerciantes holandeses, e incluso los banqueros judíos. ¿Para qué fregarse y competir con todos los esfuerzos por imposición fiscal colonial con los dominios – Gran Bretaña, Alemania, Japón, etc., cuando se puede imponer un impuesto sobre todo el comercio mundial tanto entre las colonias y dominios, como dentro de cada colonia? Por lo tanto, inmediatamente después de la guerra, en sustitución de la recaudación de los impuestos coloniales Estados Unidos introdujo la fiscalidad monetaria progresiva.
Su significado original era que todos los países en el comercio con los Estados Unidos, así como uno con el otro, utilizaban para el cálculo el dólar de EE.UU. Con el fin de garantizar el comercio internacional, todas las colonias y dominios de los Estados Unidos debían disponer de existencias de dólares proporcionales al volumen de sus negocios. A esta manera, en la medida de adherencia de los nuevos países de la zona comercial del dólar y en la medida del crecimiento del volumen de sus negocios, los Estados Unidos les cobraban los impuestos a ellos solo imprimiendo la nueva porción de los billetes, necesarios para realizar los negocios. A cambio ellos recibían los bienes reales como petróleo, oro, acero, cereales, maquinaria, etc. Y para que la demanda de dólares no estuviera disminuyéndose, los EE.UU. utilizaban con éxito los mecanismos monetarios del control del curso de su moneda. Esto le permitía devaluar los billetes que ya estaban en circulación y formar la demanda de los mismos. Incluso, si el volumen de negocios se estancaba, o al revés, podían revaluarlos y comprar baratos los activos industriales y activos de recursos naturales de las colonias.
Entonces, el uso de una moneda única en el comercio mundial era conveniente para todos. Incluso su pequeña devaluación por la inflación no ponía triste a nadie porque la mayoría de los dólares no era conservada en los almacenes sino todo el tiempo eran intercambiados por las mercancías. Por eso las perdidas reales de los comerciantes y productores por la inflación de dólar simplemente eran desplazadas al consumidor final extranjero. Así, si alguien no estaba contento, los Estados Unidos siempre han encontrado la posibilidad comprar o derrocar a este gobierno.

4. El imperio americano: fiscalidad de créditos

Sin embargo, ya al final de los 70’s, todos los limites de la absorción de dólares por el comercio mundial  fueron agotados, también a pesar de su devaluación en los periodos de las crisis mundiales a finales de los 70’s, principio de los 80’s. Allí, donde cualquier otro país hubiera elegido el camino de la reducción de los costos y del consumo interno, el imperio norteamericano pudo elegir solo uno: imponer la recaudación de los impuestos directos, a la manera de los imperios antiguos. Pero ahora esta recaudación se convirtió en los préstamos públicos “sin regreso” como pago por la protección del “Evil empire” (“El Imperio del Mal”, la URSS) y por la entrada al mercado estadounidense. Queriendo o no, pero la mayoría de los países tuvo que aceptar este impuesto por que la alternativa era una intervención o golpe de Estado o un bloqueo económico por los Estados Unidos. Además, por supuesto, todos tenían miedo de quedarse uno a uno con los “osos rusos”. Así en tan sólo 7 años, de 1981 a 1988, Estados Unidos aumentaron su deuda nacional en un 75%, de 12 a 21 billones de dólares.
Aunque no toda esta cantidad corresponde a los países y las instituciones extranjeros. Si no se hubiera cambiado nada, los Estados Unidos habrían agotado todos los recursos de todos los países bajo su control en los siguientes 10-12 años.
Pero el destino fue favorable a los Estados Unidos, empezó el colapso del imperio soviético. Desde finales de los años 80’s la zona de dólares comenzó a incluir uno tras otro los países de Europa Oriental, América Latina, África, China y, finalmente, Rusia y las ex republicas soviéticas. Los EE.UU. por algún tiempo redujeron el programa de la recaudación de los impuestos de créditos de sus colonias (durante 9 años a partir de 1988 a 1997 Estados Unidos aumentaron su deuda pública "sólo" a 30% - de 21 a 27,5 billones de dólares) y volvieron a cobrar los impuestos monetarios de los nuevos miembros de la “Comunidad de naciones amigos de EE.UU.”, ahora de casi toda la humanidad. Sin embargo, las oportunidades económicas limitadas de los países de la ex Unión Soviética no pudieron satisfacer el apetito de los Estados Unidos y naturalmente en 1997 llegó la crisis financiera mundial, que sin embargo no condujo a ninguna devaluación del dólar, ni a la eliminación de las causas de los desequilibrios económicos mundiales.
Aún así, aquí también los Estados Unidos recibieron buenas cartas. Casi todos los países en vías de desarrollo, incluido China, Rusia, Corea del Sur, Brasil, Argentina y otros, asustados por la catástrofe financiera que había pasado, empezaron a competir ofreciéndoles a los EE.UU. dinero en la deuda. Negándose todo, con excepción de lo esencial, la mitad de la humanidad empezó a acumular los dólares y pagares del gobierno de Estados Unidos, como el seguro de una nueva crisis financiera. Debido a esto, los Estados Unidos no sólo fue capaz de evitar la reducción de la recaudación de los impuestos extranjeros, sino incluso aumentarla. En siete años de 1998 al 2005, los EE.UU. pudieron aumentar la deuda nacional en un 55% de 27,5 a 43 billones de dólares. Además la recuperación de las economías de los países en vías de desarrollo, destruidas por la crisis financiera, causó una demanda adicional del efectivo internacional. Esto permitió casi duplicar el volumen de la masa de dólar, de 5 a 9,5 billones.
A principios del 2007, el tamaño de la deuda nacional de los EE.UU. era igual a más de 50 billones de dólares y la suma de los billetes emitidos era igual a más de 11 billones.

5. Imperio americano: el sistema tributario externo

Además de los impuestos extranjeros listados, del monetario y del de créditos, los Estados Unidos siguen utilizando las formas tradicionales de los mismos. Primero, es el viejo impuesto colonial. El objeto principal del comercio internacional, que tiene una alta rentabilidad, hoy es la producción de la industria de conocimientos: mercancías y servicios “high-tech”, objetos de la propiedad intelectual, incluso la tecnología, la marca de franquicias, etc. Aún el rol de este impuesto en las últimas décadas disminuía constantemente, debido al hecho de que muchos de los dominios de Estados Unidos (Gran Bretaña, Japón, Alemania, Corea del Sur y otros) están compitiendo con más y más éxito con la metrópoli por el comercio colonial de estos productos.
El siguiente impuesto extranjero importante es el impuesto de los recursos naturales. Es decir, concesiones para el desarrollo de los subsuelos, que los Estados Unidos reciben de los gobiernos de las colonias por un precio muy bajo. Muchas guerras y golpes militares que los Estados Unidos dirigían en la segunda mitad del siglo XX, están relacionados exactamente con la negación de las colonias a pagar el impuesto de los recursos naturales.
El impuesto de movilización era muy importante, especialmente durante la Guerra Fría. Su objetivo era que las colonias pagaran por el mantenimiento o hasta parcialmente financiaran el establecimiento de la infraestructura militar de EE.UU. en su territorio. Además de que compraran las armas estadounidenses excedentes para protegerse de la amenaza soviética. Hoy el rol del impuesto de movilización se ha reducido, pero lo siguen pagando por ejemplo Taiwán, en cierta medida Japón y Corea del Sur, así como las nuevas colonias de los Estados Unidos: los países de Europa Oriental.
También un impuesto muy importante es el impuesto intelectual, cuyo significado es la centrada importación de los recursos humanos de más valor, como científicos o ingenieros de las colonias; o compra casi regalado de las invenciones y tecnologías de las “nativas” sociedades científicas. Esto permite mantener la industria de los conocimientos, el ingreso principal del comercio internacional. Muy parecido es el impuesto “del trabajo”, cuyo sentido es la ubicación de producciones en países con bajos costos de mano de obra. Una forma modificada del impuesto monetario es el impuesto de las deudas: los gobiernos extranjeros reciben varias cantidades de dólares pero no de inmediato pagan por ellos con sus mercancías, sino con el tiempo y con intereses. Como herramientas de la recaudación de los impuestos extranjeros también se puede contar, en cierta medida, unos modelos de inversiones. Existe una variedad de los impuestos extranjeros más pequeños que cobran los Estados Unidos, pero en este artículo no hay sentido considerarlos.

Сказ об автопроме и фондовом рынке. На испанском опять же.

Cuento sobre la industria del automóvil y la bolsa financiera

Yo produzco coches y usted produce coches. Tenemos casi el mismo volumen de ventas, $1 millón y la rentabilidad de la misma es  8% por año, $80,000. Usted toma el beneficio anual y añade un crédito de $1 millón para aumentar la producción a 25%. Yo tomo el beneficio anual y añado el mismo crédito para ampliar la producción a 25%. Usted invierte en la producción por dos años, se desarrolla e incluso después de dos años más tiene un volumen de ventas aumentado en un 25%. Es decir, sus ventas aumentan a $1.25 millones y las ganancias a $100,000. Así, después de cuatro años trabajo duro. Usted en vez de obtener $320,000 de beneficio ha obtenido tan solo $100,000. Incluso después de once años, es decir, 15 años desde el comienzo de su operación, pagará el préstamo y ganará $1’200,000. Es decir, tanto como si usted no hubiera realizado algún movimiento. Sólo ahora ha empezado una nueva vida.

Yo lo hice más fácil. Fui a la bolsa financiera, donde se inflaban la burbuja de “dot.com”. Invertí  $1’080,000 del dinero propio y del dinero prestado en las acciones y retiraré después de dos años el 200% del beneficio. Regresé $1’160,000 al banco y todavía tengo $2’080,000 de beneficio. Por $900,000, compré su préstamo de su banco y he pedido que lo pague. Usted no puede pagar, la lana está invertida en el negocio. Entonces me llevo su empresa por las deudas y me deshago de un competidor. Porque no necesito sus coches, ni siquiera gratis. Simplemente divido su fábrica en pedazos y la vendo como chatarra. Yo aumento el precio de mis coches en un 8%. Es decir, un beneficio que Usted recibía anteriormente.

Entonces - ¿qué tenemos? - Como resultado de esas operaciones simples, el dinero del negocio real está bombeado por afuera, la producción efectiva está eliminada, la competencia se ha reducido y el precio de los productos para el consumidor aumentó. ¿Le gusta eso?  No.
Para evadirse de ese futuro, Usted también envía su crédito y todos los beneficios no en el negocio, sino en la bolsa financiera. Y estamos empezando medir las fuerzas no en un negocio real, sino en el mercado financiero, quien mueve en la bolsa financiera más beneficios, préstamos, seguros de pensiones de los empleados… Estamos empezando a vender los pedazos de nuestras propias fábricas, sólo para ganar la carrera de armamentos en el mercado de finanzas y no perder uno contra el otro. Como resultado, después de 10 años tenemos las deudas hasta el cuello, pero eso no nos preocupa, porque tenemos muchísimos activos – unos bonos hipotecarios de increíble valor de más de $10 millones de dólares. Estamos produciendo 5 veces menos coches, de pésima calidad, porque estamos ahorrando el dinero para bombearlo a la bolsa financiera. Y nuestros consumidores al sorprenderse de nuestra estupidez se compran coches japoneses.

¿Cree que esto es una broma? Vaya a ver los reportes financieros de General Motors, Ford y Crysler en los últimos 10 años y chéquelo. Verá una descripción numérica aburrida del proceso fascinante, sobre la que he contado en español simple. ¿Va a afirmar que los mercados financieros dirigen el dinero en la economía real?

Цитата: Добрый Мишка от 18.03.2009 23:48:53
Извиняюсь, что встреваю, но может целевой аудиторией следует считать не истинных пиндосов, у которых иммунитет на уровне, а пятую колонну? Как СССР валили? Через пятую колонну! Потом она уже, как свои среди своих, ядом, адаптированным ими самими под имунность мозгов, будет заражать свое париотичное окружение, и она, пятая колонна сделает за нас дело получше. Так же можно целевой аудиторией считать молодеж, у которой кризис все отобрал за последний год, то есть вера в непогрешимость американизма уже подорвана, и молодая душа жаждет мести.

Пока не все, но стоимость учебы уже увеличилась, а перспективы найти работу упали.
Иракский синдром еще не наступил. Если попробовать натравливать конкретно на воров и кидал, тут же обвинят в анти-американской деятельности.
Поэтому сервер должен быть не в США.

Вот за это мне поставили "автомат" по английскому.
Компилляция текстов Авантюриста с использованием ранее сделанных (в т.ч. Хроноскопистом) переводов.
Фазовый расклад "перебит" с поправкой на реальность (как известно, сценарий несколько "поехал").


Generation of the world crisis
or hronology of the Greatest Depression


Imperial model of the USA.
History of imperial models

Introduction.
Generally speaking, the United States as an entity has two sources of income, internal and external. Internal income is a result of the creation of physical and mental products inside the country. External income is the wealth created outside the country and brought in the USA. Internal income used to be the core of American wealth creation. But what is the situation nowadays?
For it’s military and ideological power some people refer to the USA as “an empire”. And they are right. But the term “empire” means something different. Military power and ideological domination are only tools, which empire uses to achieve its imperial goal – so they are not the true imperial goal. There is only one true goal of each empire - to impose tax on other countries and peoples. So let us review various models of colonial taxation that existed in the past in oder to understand historical transformation of American Empire’s colonial taxation.

1) Ancient empires: military conquest – plundering, tribute and slave-traiding.
Since ancient times empires used military conquest as the easiest way to impose tax on other countries. Every military victory was immediately followed by pillage in which the conqueror appropriated a significant portion of the treasure previously accumulated by the conquered nation. After the conquered country had been robbed, a direct tribute was placed on the subjugated people. At the same time, a portion of the population was turned into slaves. Later, these slaves were used by the conqueror as free labor, or sold as commodity.
The method of military conquest was universally accepted by the empires as long as agriculture remained the staple of world's economy and the productivity of labor was low and more or less the same all over the world.

2) Enlightened empires: colonial taxation.
Development of production and trade in Europe at the end of Middle Ages, appearance of big trade companies and numerous trade and military fleets allowed to replace the model of risky and costly military conquest with less conflictive and more profitable colonial taxation. The essence of colonial taxation is the free exchange of inexpensive mass-manufactured 'products of civilization' for much more valuable natural products. This way trinkets (such as glass beads and mirrors) were exchanged for gold, precious spices, rare furs, etc, at an incredible profit for European merchants.
It was profitable not only for Europeans, but also for aborigines, because they were not killed too often by Europeans any more and now they were even given something valuable in exchange for their traditional goods. They realized, that new empires are better, than old and helped them to fight with old conquest-based empires – that why new empires (Britain, France, Holland, and Russia) quickly replaced old (Spain and Portugal).
But system had serious problems: world was too small for all empires, free territories quickly came to end and new colonies could be took only by taking away from another empires by colonial war. Moreover, some colonies began claiming independence – and they could substantiate their claim with adequate military might. Some of the former colonies even claimed imperial status for themselves, the USA being a prime example. USA became a colonial empire in XIX century and took former Spanish and Portugues colonies in Latin America and South Pacific.
Continuous tensions between empires, caused by lack of colonies, culminated in the beginning of the XX century in WWI. It reduced intensity of problem by redistribution of colonies from losers (Germany, Austo-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Russia) to winners (Britain, France, USA), but didn’t solve it. Moreover, due to the high rate of industrial production and development shortly after WWI led to a devastating crisis of overproduction known as the Great Depression of 1929-1940. At the end of 1930s Germany, Japan, Italy and Russia recovered after war and made a new claim for the previously lost status and colonies. A new clash among the old, new, and revived colonial powers led to WWII.

3) American Empire: financial taxation.
The end of the WWII created a unique situation in the world. All the countries including the former empires were now under control or at least domination of the only two superpowers, USA and USSR. Moreover, since the beginning of the WWII industrial production in the USA was growing exponentially, also due to European technologies and professionals received by the USA after WWII. USA had unsurpassed capabilities to manufacture both commodities and means of their transportation. This and control over an enormous market, which included more than half of the world ensured the collection of unprecedented colonial taxes by the USA for several decades.
At that moment, shrewd Americans made an important intellectual breakthrough: they decided, that it is not efficient to compete with their dominions for colonial taxes: more efficient way is to impose taxation on the entire global trade. So, soon after WWII colonial taxation in the world was replaced by financial taxation.
Originally, the essence of financial taxation was in the use of the U.S. dollar as a legal tender in the trade between the USA and all other countries, as well as among other countries. All colonies and dominions of USA had to have a reserve of dollars sufficient to cover their trade needs. As more and more countries got into dollar-based trade, the USA emitted a necessary amount of dollars to match new demands; the higher the volume of trade was getting, the more dollars the USA were printing (and inflation allowed to increase the printing of dollars even more). By manipulating its currency, demand and supply on it the USA were skillfully transforming their money into physical goods and other assets.
All in all, the use of a single currency in international trade was convenient for all participants. Even the constant devaluation of the dollar due to inflation was not a problem, because dollars were primarily in continuous circulation among merchants servicing their trading needs, but not in reserves. And if some foreign government did not like this system, the USA has always had a choice to replace such government with a better one.

4) American Empire: debt taxation.
However, in 1970s the global trade capacity for the use of the dollar was exhausted even in spite of the dollar's significant devaluation during global crises of the end of 1970s – the beginning of 1980s. In this situation USA decided to introduced direct colonial taxation in the manner of ancient empires. But methods of robbery changed: now they took form of non-returnable government borrowings (as payment for protection against 'the Evil Empire' (USSR) and for entering on US market). Those, who didn’t want to give money to USA, had a strong chance to face serious economical and political problems. So during only 7 years between 1981 and 1988, the USA’s national debt increased by 75% from $12T to $21T (it was not only foreign finances) – and if nothing had changed, resources of controlled by USA part of the world would be exhausted in 10 or 12 years.
But fate was on the side of USA: at the end of 1980s and beginning of 1990s a lot of new territories entered in USD zone because of collapse of Socialistic block and USSR: new territories, new colonies, new resources. It allowed to reduce for a short time debt taxation (within a 9-year period between 1988 and 1997, the USA increased its debt by 'only' 30% from $21T to $27.5T) and return to financial taxation. However, resources of new colonies were limited – and it lad to the crises of 1997 – 1998 – but they didn’t destroy dollar and didn’t solve the real problem.
Almost all developing nations (including China, Russia, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, etc) got extremely troubled by the recent financial catastrophe, so they hastily began to send their money to the USA in various forms. In order to avert the risk of a new financial disaster, a good half of humanity reduced its consumption down to a bare minimum, and began to meticulously pile up U.S. bank notes and Treasury Bonds. It allowed USA not to reduce, but even increase colonial taxation (within a 7-year period between 1998 and 2005, the USA increased its debt by 55% from $27.5T to $43T). And recovery of destroyed by crisis developing economies allowed USA to increase the monetary mass from $5T to $9.5T. In the beginning of 2007, the U.S. national debt equaled $50T, while U.S. dollar mass exceeded $11T.

5) American Empire: contemporary external taxation.
Apart from financial and debt taxation, the USA uses 'traditional' mechanisms of external taxation.
Firstly, it’s usual colonial tax: USA sell high tech products and services, intellectual goods and so one. But U.S. colonial taxation is on sharp decline because numerous U.S. dominions (Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc) are quickly taking over colonial trade which used to be America's prerogative.
The second important external tax is resource tax, for example concessions granted by colonial governments to U.S. corporations at a symbolic price. In the 20th century many wars were fought and coups organized by the USA in response to refusal by local governments to pay this tax.
The third tax is military tax. It was especially important during the Cold War. U.S. colonies used to pay for the maintenance of U.S. military infrastructure in their territory, and sometimes they even paid for construction. Besides, colonies used to purchase American surplus armaments for protection from the Soviet threat. Some countries pay this tax until now.
There are a lot of other external taxes: intellectual (import of specialists, inventions and so one to develop intellectual industry), labor (deploying of industries in countries with very cheap labor), credit (giving a lot of credits to colonies in order them to return them by goods and resources) and many other taxes.

Conclusion.
Nowadays volume of colonial taxes, collected by USA, is decreasing sharply: new and resurrected empires are trying to take part of colonial tax to themselves – and it’s very expensive for USA to struggle with this process – so they must do something extraordinary to reload their colonial system.
But are colonial taxes so essential for USA? Let us look.


Genesis of crisis

1) Economical supercicles.
In the 20th century world economic theory went to the idea of economic super cycles. Theories are different, but the main idea is common: development of economy looks like waves; length of one wave is 50 ± 10 years (there are theories about other kinds of waves, but this is the most common and describes development of economy from one “Great Depression” to another). So, what is the reason of these waves? Why do they exist?
World economy moves to the highest efficiency in given
The world economy constantly moves towards ever increasing level of efficiency given the restraining framework placed on it at the current time. Then at any time appears a new economical doctrine, more efficient in modern situation, then previous. The key characteristic of the new model is its set of basically new economical “tools” (quicker, more efficient, more rational). When these tools appear, they begin to force the old practices out of the marketplace until there is no sphere in economy where they are not used. If the model and its “tools” prove to be locally successful, new doctrine with its practices will spread outside the place, where they appeared.
Unfortunately, there comes a point where the model can’t expand neither extensive, nor intensive. But economy continues to produce its product with increased efficiency – so a mass of theoretically unconsumptionable goods appears. It lads to a strict crisis of overproduction, during which redundant goods and production facilities are annihilated. After that comes a period of depression, connected with low level of production and consumption of product (because it’s artificially restricted production). Crisis and depression makes subjects of economy to search new “tools”, which can help them to solve immanent problems of old economy. When such instruments are found, new economic cycle begins.
So what the history of cycles looks like for USA? From the mille of 19th century there are 3 finished cycles and one that goes to its end right now. Cycles existed before that, but let us look on this period of time.
The first epoch of globalization (1846/51 - 1893/96) was connected with modernization of agriculture (farms vs latifundies), significant mechanization of manufacturing (mostly within the textile sector) and the mass dissemination of goods due to the advent of steam powered transport. The American Civil War was a direct result of a industrialization coming into conflict with the old model of slavery and small scale production. The North began large scale production of agricultural products and on a smaller scale a production of manufactured goods which all needed to be sold on a market – and the primary market was the South, which insisted on old methods of production. When Southern protectionism was destroyed by cavalry and Southern and Latin American markets were captured, a depression, which impoverished millions of American farmers and even more peons in Latin America, occurred.
The following cycle (1896 –1929/32) solved the crisis of the “agrarian-steamer” epoch. The crisis was ended by the redistribution of labor within the agricultural business and by the advent of the era of mass production. This era of mass production was characterized by the assembly line, the growth of industrial opportunities, the mechanization of the agricultural sector, the aggressive saturation of markets with goods, the development of international trade and the mass transformation of rural populations into the urban proletariat. As such the First World War can be seen as a war over markets among the colonial powers and those countries looking to move into those markets. It is further understandable that when the US markets became oversaturated with goods from domestic and foreign producers and when foreign markets could no longer absorb the surpluses, the world hit the overproduction economic crisis of 1929/32. This crisis led to the Great Depression in the USA as well as the rest of the world which in turn led to the rise of nationalistic and fascist governments across the world. This change in governments led to the beginning of the Second World War.
The last completed cycle of  (1932/33 – 1967/74) solved the problem of overproduction by developing the consumer market, sp this period can be called the period of mass consumption. It is characterized by the autoimmunization of production, aggressive competition, the rise and development of marketing and the booming development of the services market. The 1932/74 cycle hit its absolute peak in 1965 after which we saw crises come and go with increasing severity. The United stets and Europe tried fighting these crises with varied measures and at one point the battle seemed to be won as the economic situation was looking up. The final blow came in 1974 with the oil crisis which forced the world’s economy to drop like a lead balloon, almost 9 years after the beginning of the crisis period.
Today’s period didn’t finish yet, but it’s different from previous ones. Firstly because it’s main idea was near to the main idea of previous period, but with one exception: growth of consumer market now was based on colonial taxes and other borrowings. So the second difference is that nowadays economy is totally unprofitable and based on wasting of age-old savings of whole world. Now this savings come to end – so we will see a crisis, that will be even stronger, that the Great Depression of 1930th.

2) Economical development of the USA after the World War II.
After the World War II USA were the most powerful capitalistic country in the world. The biggest economy, the strongest military forces and so one. It allowed USA to establish their imperial order on whole capitalistic world, including direct colonies (such as Japan, West Germany) and dominions (other big European countries). So after the war American economy produced enormous real profits –and colonial system brought huge taxes. Both internal profits and colonial taxes showed a fast growth.
But in 1956 – 57 the situation began to change. Profits of national economy had begun to reduce (because of recovery of other countries after the war) – and by the year 1969 they disappeared at all. Since this year American economy has been being planned unprofitable – easily speaking, real incomes from main activity became smaller, then expenses on it. So the further “history of success” of American economy is a history of redistributing of colonial taxes. It was a first bankruptcy of USA.
The world economy reacted on it by chain of strict crises of 1968 – 1975 – but nobody noticed it. Americans tried to moderate problem by reducing of expenses by organizing a Détente, but they didn’t touch a real problem.
Further the situation became even more interesting. Real losses of national economy were growing rapidly as governmental expenses since 1980th do, but the growth of colonial taxes was slower and slower. At 1987 losses of national economy became higher, than incomes from colonial taxes. It was the second bankruptcy of USA: bankruptcy of colonial system. So the way to the new Great Depression of 1993 – 1995 and further was open.
Then there was a chain of happy cases: destruction of Soviet block and reduction of competitors’ economic activity (financial crisis in UK, reunion of Germany, long depression in Japan) allowed them to collect additional $15 trillions of colonial taxes (in 2007th dollars) – but they ended by the year 1997. Then  America collected additional taxes on crises of 1997 – 98, but amounts were too small: they were not enough even for two years, because nobody tried to use opportunity to solve real problems of US economy.
Then USA started to create bubbles (the biggest were dot.com and real estates bubbles), which took 60 % of savings of individuals and small business. This money also were wasted – so America with its growing expenses and declining incomes has to take the rest of savings. But nobody will give money to government – so the only solution is to take this money by force – or to make a Hyperinflation, which theoretically can solve the majority of USA’s problems (in connection with aggressive geopolitical position).

Aims of USA

1)		The main aims of USA are:
	a)	To restart their financial system and to solve the problem of loans.
	b)	To restart system of global taxation.
	c)	To restart real national economy.
2)		To hyperinflate USD at least at least at 3 – 5 times.
3)		It’s necessary to prepare hyperinflation in order USD not to be isolated and remain a first world currency.
4)		In order to achieve the goal established in previous clause it’ necessary to do following things:
	a)	To burn the majority of competing capitals.
	b)	To destabilisate all competing economies and then put them under the USA’s control.
	c)	To weaken or even destroy all centers of power in the world (EU, China, Russia, potentially India, Japan, Brazil and so one).
5)		The next things a necessary to fulfill points 4a, 4b and 4c:
	a)	Continuing cycle of revaluation of USD.
	b)	Economic collapse in majority of other countries.
6)		To fulfill point 4b it’s also necessary to do following things:
	a)	To destroy world energy market
	b)	To start regional destructive processes in Eurasia: in Europe, Indostan, former USSR, Near and Middle East.

Phases of crisis

Crisis can be divided into 7 phases (some of them are already in past). This scenario is optimal for USA according to their aims. This scenario also assumes that other forces in the world wouldn’t do anything to prevent USA’s scenario.
It’s also necessary to remember, that the beginning of the new phase doesn’t always mean the end of the previous one, so two phases can exist at the same time. End and beginning of each phase are not instant and took a period of time, usually few months.

1) Speculative crisis.
Middle of 2007 – 2nd quarter of 2008.
The first decrease on stock market and in the real estate sector, flight of capitals from them to gold and commodities. Devaluation of US dollar, slowing down of inflation.
Real devaluation of USD ended in March 2008, when USD index began to grow up. Growth on commodities markets ended in the middle of July 2008, when oil price began to reduce.

2) Economic recession.
2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008
Continuation of decreasing of markets, stagnation in manufacturing sector, beginning of commodity markets reduction, flight of dollars into US Treasuries, decreasing of profitability of US Treasuries, revaluation of US dollar and zero inflation.
First signs of this phase appeared at the end of 2007, when GDP of USA began to decrease. The bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. in the September 2008 can be considered as the end of this phase.

3) Crisis of consumption
2nd half of 2008, especially 4th quarter of 2008.
Mass defaults and bankruptcies of individuals, sharp reduction of charges, strong decline of the consumer market, deflation, acceleration of USD revaluation.
Problems in the consumer market began before the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy (first of them even in the beginning of 2008), but evident signs of this phase appeared only in the last third of 2008, when mass escape of capitals to USD with it’s explosive revaluation began. In this time demand on US Treasuries was so high, that their profitability failed to zero (and even lower). It was accompanied by crises in other (especially developing) countries and capital flights from them.
The beginning of global protectionist fight also connected with this phase.

4) Industrial crisis
End of 2008 – first half of 2009.
Industrial crisis, investment crisis, mass bankruptcies, mass lay-offs and salary cuts, intensification of crisis of consumption. Continuation of declining of all markets (including stock, commodities and real estates). Acceleration of deflation and revaluation of dollar.
It’s rather difficult to say, when this phase will come to end, because the full image is strongly deformed by the next phase that has begun too early. But we can see bright evidences of this phase: for example, Chrysler’s bankruptcy application, that was given some days ago. It’s not usual bankruptcy, after which company disappears, but it is bankruptcy.

5) Budget crisis
End of 2008 – end of 2009 or beginning of 2010.
Attempt to stop an economic collapse and to compensate sharp decrease of taxes by prompt growth of governmental expenses due to explosive growth of external borrowings. Apparent stabilization of economy, slowdown of inflation, stabilization of US dollar exchange rate.
This phase should begin at the middle of 2009, but it started at the same time as the previous phase (and strongly affected it).So we can see extreme growth of governmental borrowings and signs of recovery in economy: growth of all markets, stabilization of USD. But it isn’t real recovery: all dangerous cash breaks were simply filled with money – but real problems were not solved. So during the month to come be will see futile efforts to solve economic problems by enormous injections of borrowed money into economy.  And then world capitals will come to end.

6) Hyperinflation
Begins between 4th quarter of 2009 and the middle of 2010.
After world capitals come to end there will be to ways for USA.
First is to allow things to go as they mast. It means deflationary collapse, which will destroy American financial system and then – whole economy. After that USA will rapidly transform into big Honduras. Or, maybe, into a couple of Hondurases. In any case America won’t be a superpower anymore (at least during the nearest century). It’s a very bad variant for USA.
Second is to print many trillions of dollars and to begin a hyperinflation. It’ll help USA to solve their problems. It is better variant for USA, so since 2010 we will see artificially made hyperinflation with devaluation of a direct public debt and pension obligations, significant reduction of real budgetary expenses and debt burden of the population, depreciation of workforce and increase of profitability of business, concentration of national property in hands of national elite. Also we will see collapse of US Treasures and temporary growth of stock, commodity and real estate markets. Hyperinflation, explosive devaluation of US dollar. It’ll help USA to bring a new life to their economy and imperial system and to bring total economic collapse into the majority of other countries.

7) Global economic collapse
From 2010 to 2014 and even further.
Development of global geopolitical conflict, collapse of national economies, collapse or physical disappearance of all markets, destruction of world economic relations and Jamaican currency system. Civil wars, regional conflicts and the Third World War.
After this period comes to end (near 2018) the new long wave will begin. And if USA realize their aims, it’ll be also American epoch, more American, then the previous one. And, maybe, it’ll be the last epoch of mankind as we know it, because there are cucarachas who will be the main beneficiaries of the Great Depression 3 and following World War IV in 2050th – 2060th.

Global taxation не поймут. Не вписывается в картину мира. Еще - гиперинфляцию лучше давать в процентах.

А никто не пробовал перевести "Соединенные Штаты Абсента"? Я перевёл пару абзацев и затосковал над банковскими терминами. Может, у кого есть, а?

Here you go:
Generally speaking, the United States as an entity has two sources of income, internal and external. Internal income is a result of the creation of physical and mental products inside the country. External income is the wealth created outside the country and brought in the USA. Internal income used to be the core of American wealth creation. But what is the situation nowadays?
For it’s military and ideological power some people refer to the USA as “an empire”. And they are right. But the term “empire” means something different. Military power and ideological domination are only tools, which empire uses to achieve its imperial goal – so they are not the true imperial goal. There is only one true goal of each empire - to impose tax on other countries and peoples. So let us review various models of colonial taxation that existed in the past in oder to understand historical transformation of American Empire’s colonial taxation.
I didn't go farther than this, but even the piece above is unreadable.
1. 'Generally speaking' won't start anything, except for a paragraph in the middle of an article.
2. US as "an entity" is way too far a definition. Good for exploring freemasonry, etc., theories Obviously, 'US as a nation' (Am.Eng), or 'US as a country' (Brit.Eng.), whatever the target audience might be.
3. 'Income' for a country has a suspicious smell, 'revenue' is used.
4. 'mental products' -- a very big LOL! must be the products for/from the 'mental institutions' (durdoma). Must be 'intellectual products', or better still: 'intellectual property'.
5. 'Nowadays' is so King's English, one can puke. "Now" will do just fine.
6. "it's" should be "its"
7. "empire" can be capitalized
8. "only tools" must be "just tools"
9. "true" must be "real"
10. "to impose tax on" must be "to tax"
11. "American Empire's... blah-blah-blah" kills every grain of contents below. Must be re-written completely. For starters, "...to understand how the colonial taxation system employed by the American Empire" has transformed in 20th century." Still doesn't sound good -- no gde-to tak.

Got tired, and have a suspicion the Russian original itself needs quite a bit of copyediting.

This is my 1st post here, so just a tidbit about me:
MFTI, 1976, majors: ABM defense radars, Japanese, British English
Professional translator: ca. 17 years, Japanese; ca. 25 years, English
Movie/TV script translator/dubbing editor
Live in US since 1999, unemployed, an oil painter and a sculptor -- recently;)

Drop me a line if my services might be needed

Цитата: aludal от 03.07.2009 03:38:24
Here you go...
Got tired, and have a suspicion the Russian original itself needs quite a bit of copyediting.

Уважаемый aludal, спасибо за Ваши "американские" замечания. Я мог бы их принять, если бы был автором текста. Я проводил с текстом эксперимент на живых американцах, и получил результат, примерно аналогичный Вашему. Давайте исключим из рассмотрения бытовые слова и выражения (они у разных людей индивидуальны, что в английском языке, что в русском - многие русские люди говорят "ежели" и "надобно", хотя полагается "если" и "надо"). Остановимся на сути дела. Так вот, Вы не первый "американец", кто пытается загнать суть в рамки принятых и понятных английских терминов. Ваш список замечаний - тому свидетельство. (Да он и не Ваш. В предыдущих постах ветки я приводил аналогичные примеры общеамериканских "мисконцепций"). Но дело в том, что автор как раз и пытается обрисовать ситуацию крайне непривычным образом, и я был не волен отступать он его замысла.
По большому счёту, Вы негодуете как раз по этому поводу. Ваше резюме: "подозреваю, что сам русский исходный текст требует значительного редактирования". Как бы Вам объяснить помягче... Всё наоборот... Автор хочет донести, что значительного редактирования требует читательское мировосприятие. Вам - к автору.
P.S. Я хотел покритиковать Ваш английский язык. Уж больно он у Вас простонародно-слэнговый. Но не стал (ведь так, как Вы, в Америке тоже говорят, напр., в некоторых голливудских фильмах. Зачит, Вы приняли на себя такое амплуа). В любом случае, большое спасибо за отклик.
Хроноскопист, переводчик текста.

Look, Mr Хроноскопист. It was me who was trying to be easy on your translation. Majority of my comments are not optional, or stylistic, they are about plain, outright mistakes, on any level of communication. Hilarious mistakes, as in the case of "mental products", or "income". I was under impression the (good) text may aspire to be quoted in Letters to Editor of FT, WSJ, NYT, and not Comedy Club, or SNL rendition of Timothy Geithner.
Producing a long, boring, and intentionally unclear Russian original is another good step for the whole issue to be ignored, or laughed at, no matter how exact its translation was.
"Vulgar, Joe6pack slang" will be exactly using "income" instead of correct "revenue". No other options, whoever speaks to whom.
Ну а кроме того, попытки тонко постебаться за счёт слишком обыденного американского мировосприятия или там бедности и нормированности экономического языка тут не проходят, и нечего переводить даже

Цитата: aludal от 03.07.2009 12:17:47
Look, Mr Хроноскопист. It was me who was trying to be easy on your translation. Majority of my comments are not optional, or stylistic, they are about plain, outright mistakes, on any level of communication. Hilarious mistakes, as in the case of "mental products", or "income". I was under impression the (good) text may aspire to be quoted in Letters to Editor of FT, WSJ, NYT, and not Comedy Club, or SNL rendition of Timothy Geithner.
Producing a long, boring, and intentionally unclear Russian original is another good step for the whole issue to be ignored, or laughed at, no matter how exact its translation was.
"Vulgar, Joe6pack slang" will be exactly using "income" instead of correct "revenue". No other options, whoever speaks to whom.
Ну а кроме того, попытки тонко постебаться за счёт слишком обыденного американского мировосприятия или там бедности и нормированности экономического языка тут не проходят, и нечего переводить даже

Сегодня я сказал одному из американцев, которые мне текст редактировали: "Джон, помнишь, я как-то просил тебя текст прочитать и ошибки исправить? Ты ещё возражал активно по сути текста. Так вот, нашелся русский, который стал в ошибках копаться, что ты, возможно, оставил. Типа, в тексте стоит 'доход Америки' (income), а надо 'приход Америки' (revenue). И тому подобное..." Джон мне ответил: "Интересно, что в ошибках языка, на котором мы тут говорим, стал копаться русский. Видно, американцам это безразлично. Порекомендуй своему русскому, если он так ошибки любит, покопаться в текстах Джорджа Буша Jr. Очень много найдёт..."

Уважаемый aludal, если в Вас правильно понял, по-Вашему, хороший текст - это тот, который настолько вписывается в струю, что на него могут сослаться в Wall Street Journal или Financial Times. Т.е. по приезде в Америку надо насолько пропитаться местными идеями, что даже рупор истэблишмента тебя заметит и снизойдёт. Позвольте Вам заметить, что этот подход прямо противоположен авторскому. Оттого его терминология отличается от мэйнстримовской.
P.S. Пожалуйста, пишите по-русски, т.к. Ваш случай может быть интересен читателям, но не все русские живут в Америке.

Привет старшим физтехам от младших. По-моему, вы тут ерундой занимаетесь. А всё почему? Потому что, скорее всего, изучали классиков марксизма-ленинизма вместо философии науки. А философии науки, в частности Томас Кун, нам прямо говорит о том, что невозможно донести какаю-либо идею до другого человека, пока его система распознавания образов (мозги) настроена на совершенно иное восприятие ситуации.
Поэтому, предлагаю постановить, что:

"1. Есть текст translated from russian into english by Хроноскопист,
2. Есть идеи Авантюриста, плохо ли, хорошо, но озвученные в тексте,
3. Есть американцы, которые захотят разобраться с этими идеями,
4. Есть средства массовой информации, которые согласятся опубликовать перевод"

и успокоиться.

Contrary to all groundless assumptions, I'm genuine Russian -- unlike 95 per cent of so called American Russians of SF/Bay Area and Santa Cruz/Monterey -- ca. 30K people, mostly Jews, Ukranians, Belarussians, Lithuanians, Chechens/Ingushs, Tartars, etc. I'm not acquianted with any of those and couldn't care less about them, or their views on Israel, or anything. My lady is a genuine WASP of Irish and German descent with a local nobility status: e.g., her mother's family Boeger has some prominence in brand Californian wines and in some cattle. Sure she didn't really sit right on the street as I portrayed it at that my painting, and yes, the depth of crisis here is mostly felt and determined by how good media and art could put a spin on a notion. But she knows humor or satire when she sees one: say, Borat's depiction of a "Russian Kazakhstanian" is funny for her, if a tidbit stunning. She also knows that there are many more clowns and comic heroes out there in Russia now: "Chelovek Gryzlov", "Chelovek Puten", "Chelovek Medved", "Saaka", "Yushch", a Defense minister right out of the furniture store, etc. It's hilarious every time when some news from Russia reaches this coast.
You guys want to achieve a major impact out of your writings? Name it something like 'Borat's Global Economics Initiative' (takes some negotiating with Sacha Baron Cohen), revert to original robotic (scary and senseless, lol) translation, and publish no more than 900 best words out of it. Ask for money from whoever wants more of this gut wrenching laughing matter.

Цитата: aludal
А пока наблюдается обратная, удручающая картинка -- прос.али это всё, прос.али свою колониальную империю, но беремся рассуждать об особенностях взимания колониального налога прямо так, с полными штанами. Натурально, тут народ нос зажимает, а слушать перестали ещё со времен пьяных танцев Ельцина.

10 дней водных процедур для очистки кармы. Если не подействует - срок будет увеличен.
З.Ы. Весь флуд отправляется в Лету.

Цитата: Добрый Мишка от 18.03.2009 23:48:53
Извиняюсь, что встреваю, но может целевой аудиторией следует считать не истинных пиндосов, у которых иммунитет на уровне, а пятую колонну? Как СССР валили? Через пятую колонну! Потом она уже, как свои среди своих, ядом, адаптированным ими самими под имунность мозгов, будет заражать свое париотичное окружение, и она, пятая колонна сделает за нас дело получше. Так же можно целевой аудиторией считать молодеж, у которой кризис все отобрал за последний год, то есть вера в непогрешимость американизма уже подорвана, и молодая душа жаждет мести.

Сататьи Авантюриста на испанский бы хорошо перевести. Для очень многих из испаноязычной аудитории они действительно были бы интересны и воспринимались положительно. В т.ч., думаю, и среди живущих в США.

Цитата: Штандартенфюрер Санчо С Ранчо от 02.06.2009 06:40:06
А я вот тоже вводную про империи запощу. Только на испанском. Чавесу чтоли отослать? Ему 100% понравится  :D

    No sé qué quiero…   Las flores con la música o acuchillar a alguien

Ну, Чавесу или нет, но очень-очень многим из испаноязычной аудитории доказывать, что США берут колониальный налог, не надо. Для них эти вещи очевидны априори. А вот механизмы изъятия таких налогов им как раз будут интересны.  ;)

Перевожу на английский текст Авантюриста "Гиперинфляция доллара и её последствия для евро", чтобы иностранные коллеги ознакомились с информацией. Перевод получается достаточно грубый, т.к. в экономических терминах не ориентируюсь и английским владею не идеально. Кто мог бы поддержать и отшлифовать текст, чтобы он мог пойти в дело?
Сырую версию перевода выложу в ближайший час.